Contributory Factors of Traffic Accidents in Lahore Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM)


  • Hajra Slam GC, University Lahore
  • Yasar Mahmood GC, University Lahore



Geometric Design of Road, Number of Accidents, Demographic Information, Physical Characteristics, Poisson Regression, Negative Binomial Regression


The geometric design of roads is the branch of highway engineering concerned with the positioning of the physical elements of the roadway according to standards and limitations with objectives to optimize efficiency and safety while minimizing cost and environmental damage. The present study aims to explore geometric design and other factors which cause of accidents in Lahore. Data is collected from TEPA (Traffic Engineering and Planning Agency), NESPAK (National Engineering Services Pakistan), CTP (City Traffic Police) and Rescue 1122 over a period of 3 years. Two phase sampling technique has been used. Data is carried out about demographic information, physical characteristics and geometric design of roads. All registered 356 traffic accidents have been used on Ferozpur Road, Multan Road, Canal Bank Road and Grand Trunk in Lahore. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are discussed in this research. SPSS and R Language are used for analysis. 

The results show that most of accidents occur at office off timing and fatal due to reckless driving and over speeding. Mostly, cars and tralala hit the bikes and Pedestrians. The Poisson regression model gives good description of number of accidents depends on various explanatory variables. Number of lanes, type of locations and roadway light are statistically significant. Narrow Shoulder width (m), Median Width (m) and Lane width (m) increase accident occurrence. Three lanes and larger road structures increase accidents. Numbers of accident increase when Roadway, type of locations, roadway light and traffic control signals decrease.

Author Biographies

Hajra Slam, GC, University Lahore

M.Phil Scholar

Department of Statistics

Yasar Mahmood, GC, University Lahore


Department of Statistics


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Engineering Sciences