Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Total Rainfall in Pakistan Using L-Moments

Ishfaq Ahmad, Aamir Abbas, Muhammad Fawad, Aamir Saghir

Abstract


This study presents the estimation of regional quantiles of Annual Total Rainfall (ATR) for 30 meteorological stations using index flood procedure based on L-moments. Discordancy measure based on L-moments was used to screen the ATR. As a matter of the fact, highly elevated areas of Pakistan receive more rainfall, the study area was divided into four different regions. Further to justify the homogeneity of these regions, L-moment based heterogeneity measure (H) was calculated for each region using four parameter Kappa distribution. For each region, best distribution was found among Pearson type III (PE3), Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution using Z-statistic and L-moment ratio diagram. Regional quantiles on the basis of best-fit distribution for each region
were determined and further for robustness, the accuracy measures for the estimated regional quantiles were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that PE3 was the most suitable choice for large return period for first three regions while for small return period GNO and GEV. Similarly, for region IV GEV was declared as the best fit for lower return period’s up to 20 years while for a period of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years GNO was the best one.


Keywords


Extreme events, L-Moments, Regional Frequency Analysis, Return periods, quantiles estimates

Full Text:

PDF

References


Adamowski K, Alila Y, Pilon P (1996) Regional rainfall distribution for Canada. Atmospheric Research 42:75-88.

Ahmad I, Shah SF, Mahmood I, Ahmad Z (2013) Modeling of monsoon rainfall in Pakistan based on Kappa distribution. Sci. Int. (Lahore) 25(2):333-336.

Anli AS (2013) Frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall series using L-moment methods on Yesilirmak Basin in Turkey. Journal: Food, Agriculture and Environment (JFAE) 11:1763-1767.

Ayoade JO (1976) A preliminary study of magnitude of frequency and distribution of intense rainfall in Nigeria. Hydrological Sciences, XXI 3/9, 419-421.

Bilham EG (1936) Classification of heavy falls in short periods. British Rainfall 1935:262-280.

Devi TA, Choudhury P (2013) Extreme Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Meteorological Sub- Division 4 of India Using L-Moments. International Journal of Environmental, Earth Science and Engineering 7(12):138-143.

Hassan BGH, Ping F (2012) Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for the Luanhe Basin – by Using L-moments and Cluster Techniques. International Conference on Environmental Science and Development 1:126-135.

Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1993) Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resource Research, 29(2):271-281.

Hosking JRM (1990) L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J Roy Statist Soc Ser B Methodological 52:105–124.

Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1997) Regional Frequency Analysis: An approach Based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, New York.

Koh DK, Choo TH, Maeng SJ, Trived C (2008) Regional Frequency Analysis for Rainfall using L-Moment. The Journal of the Korea Contents Association, 8 (3): 252-263.

Lee SH, Maeng SJ (2003) Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall using L-moment. Irrigation and Drainage 52:219–230.

Ngongondo CS, Xu CY, Tallaksen LM, AlemawB, ChirwaT (2011) Regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi using the index rainfall and L-moments approaches. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 25(7): 939–955.

Parida BP (1999) Modeling of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a four-parameter Kappa distribution. International Journal of Climatology 19:1389-1398.

Park JS, Jung HS, Kim RS, Oh JH (2001) Modeling summer extreme rainfall over the Korean peninsula using Wakeby distribution. International journal of climatology 21 (11):1371-1384.

Sabri A, Ariff NM, Ani Shabri (2009) Frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls via L-moment approach. Sains Malaysiana 38 (2):149-158.

Shahzadi A, Akhtar AS, Saf B (2013) Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments. Pak.j.stat.oper.res. 9(1):111-136.

Smithers JC, SchulzeRE (2001) A methodology for the estimation of short duration design storms in South Africa using a regional approach based on L-moments. Journal of Hydrology 24: 42–52.

Trefry CM, Jr DWW, Johnson D (2005) Regional rainfall frequency analysis for the state of Michigan. Journal of Hydrological Engineering 10 (6), 437-449.

Yurekli K (2005) Regional Analysis of Monthly Rainfalls over Amasya Province via L-Moment Method GOU. Ziraat Fakultesi Dergisi 22(2):51-56.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24949%2Fnjes.v10i1.157

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


ISSN: 2070-9900